Late monsoon burst washes away drought year threat

NEW DELHI: Better-than-expected rainfall across most of India in September has washed away the looming threat of this year’s monsoon ending in the deficient (drought) zone, a prospect that had appeared likely at the beginning of the month.
On Wednesday, the season’s countrywide rain deficit fell to 7%, down from 11% just 12 days earlier. A shortfall of over 10% is considered as “deficient” monsoon, earlier known as a drought year. With just 10 days left for the end of season, a drought is now ruled out.
The season is likely to end with monsoon in “below-normal” range (shortfall between 4% and 10%), which experts said was a fair outcome given that this was an El Nino year. IMD had forecast a “normal” monsoon, which ranges between 4% surplus to 4% shortfall.

Rain to continue across India for next few days
Rainfall across the country in September so far has been 9% above normal, in sharp contrast to the previous month when India had experienced its driest August on record with a 36% rain shortfall, reports Amit Bhattacharya.
“Rainfall across the country has been good over the past fortnight and this active phase is likely to continue over the next few days. The most important factor has been the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) entering a favourable phase for monsoon rainfall in India,” said Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, chief of India Meteorological Department.
MJO is an eastward-moving storm system close to the equator that travels around the globe.
While the system is highly unpredictable, an active MJO passing through the Indian Ocean region usually invigorates the monsoon in India.