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NEW DELHI: Kharif acreage has gone up by 2 lakh hectares this year compared to 2022 despite below-normal monsoon rainfall, but the country’s foodgrain output (1,486 lakh tonnes) this season is estimated to be 4.5% less than the production reported in the same agri-season last year. The output of paddy (1,063 lakh tonnes) fell by 3.8%.
The dip is reflected in the first advance estimates of 2023-24, released by the agriculture ministrylate Friday.Officials involved in the estimation, with data from the states, believe there are still chances that the figures would be revised upward during the subsequent estimates based on actual crop cutting experiments (CCE).
Final ’23-’24 crop output data only by mid-next year
In the 2022-23 crop year (July-June cycle), the output of paddy was revised from 1,050 lakh tonnes in the first estimates to 1,105 lakh tonnes in the final estimates.
They also believe that the figures for the summer-sown crops of 2023-24 will, in any case, be revised, either way, as the ministry has decided to use an advanced technology – Yield Estimation System based on Technology (YES-TECH) – to estimate the output of two major crops, paddy and wheat, during the current crop year. Final and more accurate figures will get reflected in the output data for 2023-24 only by mid-next year when the ministry releases its third estimates.
The ministry, while releasing the first estimates data, admitted that the “first production assessment for 2023-24 (Kharif) is largely based on the average yield of the past three years and may undergo change after receiving the yield estimates based on actual CCE”.
Past experience shows that even the CCE, the traditional system of manual yield measurements in randomly selected field plots, has limitations and is prone to errors as a limited number of measurements in randomly selected plots tends to produce higher standard error. Besides, it is also vulnerable to human error.
These limitations get reflected in changing output figures in estimates.
The dip is reflected in the first advance estimates of 2023-24, released by the agriculture ministrylate Friday.Officials involved in the estimation, with data from the states, believe there are still chances that the figures would be revised upward during the subsequent estimates based on actual crop cutting experiments (CCE).
Final ’23-’24 crop output data only by mid-next year
In the 2022-23 crop year (July-June cycle), the output of paddy was revised from 1,050 lakh tonnes in the first estimates to 1,105 lakh tonnes in the final estimates.
They also believe that the figures for the summer-sown crops of 2023-24 will, in any case, be revised, either way, as the ministry has decided to use an advanced technology – Yield Estimation System based on Technology (YES-TECH) – to estimate the output of two major crops, paddy and wheat, during the current crop year. Final and more accurate figures will get reflected in the output data for 2023-24 only by mid-next year when the ministry releases its third estimates.
The ministry, while releasing the first estimates data, admitted that the “first production assessment for 2023-24 (Kharif) is largely based on the average yield of the past three years and may undergo change after receiving the yield estimates based on actual CCE”.
Past experience shows that even the CCE, the traditional system of manual yield measurements in randomly selected field plots, has limitations and is prone to errors as a limited number of measurements in randomly selected plots tends to produce higher standard error. Besides, it is also vulnerable to human error.
These limitations get reflected in changing output figures in estimates.
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