Monsoon: Monsoon slips into ‘below normal’ zone | India News

NEW DELHI: In just 15 days, the southwest monsoon has gone from “above normal”, at 5% higher than the long period average (LPA) at the end of July, to “below normal”. The season’s total rain fell to 5% below LPA on Tuesday, reports Amit Bhattacharya. Around 36% of India’s districts – 263 out of 717 – have received deficient or large deficient rainfall with deficits of 20% or more.

In just 15 days, monsoon turns from 5% surplus to 5% deficit
In just 15 days, the southwest monsoon has gone from “above normal”, at 5% higher than the long period average (LPA) at the end of July, to “below normal”.On Tuesday, the season’s cumulative rainfall slipped to 5% in the negative, going below normal range of ±4% of LPA, as the break in monsoon continued.
Countrywide rainfall in the first half of August (1 to 15) has been 35% below LPA, with the monsoon remaining weak almost through this period following a long active spell that saw 13% higher than normal rains in July.

With large rain deficits persisting in several states of eastern India and a growing shortfall in the south, the India Meteorological Department said a pick-up in rainfall is expected from around August 18. “The second half of August should see better rainfall. We expect a revival of the monsoon from August 18 or so. It may not be very strong but areas along the west coast and peninsular India are expected to get wet weather, along with rainfall in several states in the east and northeast as well as central India,” said senior IMD scientist D Sivananda Pai, who was earlier the department’s lead monsoon forecaster.
There are clouds of worry over the monsoon’s performance in the second half of the season (August-September) with El Nino now fully developed as a “coupled system”, which means changes associated with the warming of ocean waters in the east and central Pacific were now reflecting in wind patterns over the region, as per the latest update from US national weather agencies. Such a state enables the El Nino to impact weather in other parts of the world, including India, say experts.
As on Tuesday, around 36% of India’s districts – 263 out of 717 – had received deficient or large deficient rainfall (deficits of 20% or more) since beginning of rainy season. Among the worst-hit states were Bihar, where 31 of the 38 districts were in deficit, Kerala (all 14 districts in deficit), Jharkhand (21 out of 24) and UP (46 out of 75, most of these in east UP). While IMD has forecast a “normal” monsoon this year with rainfall in the lower end of the normal range. For the month of August, it said rainfall is expected to be below-normal at 90-94% of the LPA.However, August seems headed for a higher deficit.

Watch Monsoon takes pause in August after July deluge, El Nino may further weaken rains