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US online holiday sales to hit $221.8 billion this holiday shopping season, forecasts Adobe. This represents 4.8% growth year-over-year (YoY). Based on Adobe Analytics data, the analysis claims to provide a comprehensive view into the US e-commerce by analyzing commerce transactions online, covering over 1 trillion visits to US retail sites, 100 million SKUs and 18 product categories. Adobe Analytics is part of Adobe Experience Cloud.
In the year 2022 holiday season, shoppers spent $211.7 billion online, and saw 3.5% YoY growth. Never-before-seen discounts, and the increased usage of the Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL) flexible spending method, which is expected to drive $17 billion in online spending (vs. $14.5 billion in 2022, up 16.9%), will drive spending this season as consumers look to stretch their budgets when making purchases. Additionally, shopping on mobile devices is expected to hit a major milestone, surpassing desktop and driving over half (51.2%) of all online spending this season.
The report expects Cyber Monday will remain the season’s and year’s biggest shopping day, driving a record $12 billion in spending, up 6.1% YoY. Black Friday online sales are set to grow by 5.7% YoY to $9.6 billion, with Thanksgiving growing 5.5% YoY to $5.6 billion. Driven by deep discounts, these big shopping days remain important anchor points for the season.
“Despite an unpredictable economic environment, where consumers face several challenges including rising interest rates, we expect strong e-commerce growth this season on account of record discounts and flexible payment methods,” said Patrick Brown, vice present of growth marketing at Adobe. “Buy Now, Pay Later in particular has become increasingly mainstream and will make it easier for shoppers to hit the buy button, especially on mobile devices where over half of online spending will take place.”
Record discounts likely this season
Adobe anticipates discounts will hit record highs – up to 35% off listed prices – this holiday season, as retailers contend with an uncertain spending environment and consumers who continue dealing with rising costs in areas such as food and gas. Of the 18 categories tracked by Adobe, toys, electronics and apparel are expected to have the biggest deals: discounts for toys are expected to peak at 35% off listed prices (vs. 34% in 2022), while electronics discounts are set to hit 30% (vs. 25%) and apparel at 25% (vs. 19%). Other categories with notable discounts include sporting goods at 24% (vs. 10%), TVs at 22% (vs. 17%) and furniture/bedding at 19% (vs. 8%).
The deepest discounts are expected to hit during Cyber Week, the best time to shop for bargain hunters. Black Friday (Nov. 24) will be the best day to shop for TVs, while Saturday (Nov. 25) will have the best deals for computers. The deepest discounts for toys and apparel will be on Sunday (Nov. 26), and Cyber Monday (Nov. 27) will have the best deals for electronics and furniture. Those looking for the best deals in appliances will find them on Tuesday (Nov.30); the biggest discounts for sporting goods are expected on Wednesday (Dec 4.)
While Cyber Week is expected to have the best deals, consumers will see bargains as early as the second week of October, where discounts are expected to be as high as 18%. Deals will also persist, with discounts as high as 20% in the days leading up to Cyber Week (Nov. 1 through Nov. 17), offering some flexibility to consumers looking to manage their budgets in new ways this year.
In the year 2022 holiday season, shoppers spent $211.7 billion online, and saw 3.5% YoY growth. Never-before-seen discounts, and the increased usage of the Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL) flexible spending method, which is expected to drive $17 billion in online spending (vs. $14.5 billion in 2022, up 16.9%), will drive spending this season as consumers look to stretch their budgets when making purchases. Additionally, shopping on mobile devices is expected to hit a major milestone, surpassing desktop and driving over half (51.2%) of all online spending this season.
The report expects Cyber Monday will remain the season’s and year’s biggest shopping day, driving a record $12 billion in spending, up 6.1% YoY. Black Friday online sales are set to grow by 5.7% YoY to $9.6 billion, with Thanksgiving growing 5.5% YoY to $5.6 billion. Driven by deep discounts, these big shopping days remain important anchor points for the season.
“Despite an unpredictable economic environment, where consumers face several challenges including rising interest rates, we expect strong e-commerce growth this season on account of record discounts and flexible payment methods,” said Patrick Brown, vice present of growth marketing at Adobe. “Buy Now, Pay Later in particular has become increasingly mainstream and will make it easier for shoppers to hit the buy button, especially on mobile devices where over half of online spending will take place.”
Record discounts likely this season
Adobe anticipates discounts will hit record highs – up to 35% off listed prices – this holiday season, as retailers contend with an uncertain spending environment and consumers who continue dealing with rising costs in areas such as food and gas. Of the 18 categories tracked by Adobe, toys, electronics and apparel are expected to have the biggest deals: discounts for toys are expected to peak at 35% off listed prices (vs. 34% in 2022), while electronics discounts are set to hit 30% (vs. 25%) and apparel at 25% (vs. 19%). Other categories with notable discounts include sporting goods at 24% (vs. 10%), TVs at 22% (vs. 17%) and furniture/bedding at 19% (vs. 8%).
The deepest discounts are expected to hit during Cyber Week, the best time to shop for bargain hunters. Black Friday (Nov. 24) will be the best day to shop for TVs, while Saturday (Nov. 25) will have the best deals for computers. The deepest discounts for toys and apparel will be on Sunday (Nov. 26), and Cyber Monday (Nov. 27) will have the best deals for electronics and furniture. Those looking for the best deals in appliances will find them on Tuesday (Nov.30); the biggest discounts for sporting goods are expected on Wednesday (Dec 4.)
While Cyber Week is expected to have the best deals, consumers will see bargains as early as the second week of October, where discounts are expected to be as high as 18%. Deals will also persist, with discounts as high as 20% in the days leading up to Cyber Week (Nov. 1 through Nov. 17), offering some flexibility to consumers looking to manage their budgets in new ways this year.
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